（外脑精华·北京）老练的日本央行行长福井俊彦当然愿意提高利率。但12月19日，他却断定保持利率不变才是明智之举。在福井的领导下，日本央行挽回了其失去的很大一部分声誉，因为央行切实地清理了十年来银行体系中积累的不良贷款，并为日本经济蹒跚却又持续的复苏创造了条件。在此过程中，央行赢得了政界的尊敬，政府也因此减少了对央行决策的干预。
担心危及复苏，安倍向央行施压
然而，安倍晋三领导的新政府希望日本脆弱的经济复苏至少能够维持到明年夏季的参议院选举之时，因此眼下央行行事非常谨慎。首相办公室声称，上周安倍召见福井只是进行了一次友好的谈话。但政府方面也委婉指明，如果央行踩下刹车令经济减速，必将引起执政党的愤怒。政界和金融界决不会允许央行忘记2000年的教训：当时央行取消零利率，加息至0.25%，结果此举加剧了通缩，6个月后央行被迫再次降息。
而且，央行今年夏季宣布通缩时代结束的做法招致了“操之过急”的指责。央行对这种批评很敏感。在经历了6年的免费融资时代之后，央行于今年7月低调而迅速地结束了零利率，加息至0.25%，同时希望此举不会阻止通胀率的缓慢提高。实际上，以核心消费价格指数来衡量，日本的通胀率一直保持在0到0.1%之间。日本的核心消费价格指数包括能源价格，但剔除了食品价格。因此如果不计能源价格，近几个月日本的通胀率实际是负值。
牢记泡沫教训，央行警惕投资猛增
虽然如此，央行仍有将基准的隔夜同业拆借利率提高到0.5%的计划，而原因就在于对企业投资猛增的忧虑。由于东京等大城市商业不动产价格回升，企业资本支出连创新高。企业能够以不动产为抵押进行借款，因此随着不动产的增值，大小企业借贷进行投资的环境更加宽松，这就造成企业投资猛增。尽管日本最近将2005年GDP增长率由2.6%向下修订为1.9%，但自2002年起日本的经济复苏能够持续至今，完全要归功于出口和投资的增长。
央行乐于看到资本开支猛增从而支撑经济复苏，但也担心情况失去控制。央行对上世纪80年代的教训记忆犹新：当时廉价资金导致私人部门投资猛增，从而推动股价和地价飙升，当1990年泡沫破灭时，坏帐令银行体系濒临崩溃，日本陷入长达十年之久的衰退和通货紧缩。经历如此磨难，福井决不会同意放任投资猛增，以致再次对经济造成如此破坏。
福井还对日本向世界供应过多流动性的现状感到忧虑。目前美联储和欧洲央行的基准利率分别为5.25%和3.5%，在这种情况下，日本央行0.25%的超低利率就导致了日元利差交易的畸形热潮——投资者纷纷借入廉价的日本资金，投资于其他国家的高收益资产。福井认为，长期保持如此宽松的货币政策，潜在危险大大超过了短期利益，应尽快恢复“正常”的货币政策。
消费低迷不振，央行未能如愿加息
日本央行曾希望在12月18—19日的货币政策委员会会议上决定再次小幅加息25个基点。央行于12月15日发布的企业情绪短观调查季报证明，企业界仍然对利润前景感到乐观，从大型制造商到小企业普遍保持着信心。该调查还显示，就业预期和资本支出也在增长。但央行政策委员会之所以决定保持利率不变，原因就在于消费支出低迷——大型零售商信心低落表明了消费前景的疲软。
对于消费低迷，人们做出了一切可能的解释：从恶劣的天气到就业缺乏保障。但一个不可否认的因素是，虽然企业利润大幅上升（4季度再次增长15%），工资却几乎停滞不前。因此，居民必须动用储蓄来支撑消费。内阁府警告说，日本的居民储蓄率在1973年创下23%的高点后，目前已滑落至2.7%，与西方的普遍水平相当。面对即将到来的退休大潮，日趋老龄化的日本人不可能在今天就大规模动用自己的储蓄。而且，消费毕竟占到日本GDP的57%，因此除非企业界让消费者分享到更多的盈利，否则日本经济的增长仍将迟缓。
一些企业已经开始提高工资。目前，日本的就业市场趋紧，企业财务状况普遍改善。11月的破产企业数比10月又下降15%，而债务余额也大幅下降32%。随着日本经济接近充分就业状态，工资水平势必会上升。
有人认为，私人消费的实际走势远比官方数据显示的要强劲。官方数据的不可靠是众所周知，数据公布几个月后总要进行修正。尽管如此，内阁府的消费信心数据毕竟在10月和11月连续保持了上升。无论如何，对于今年以来日本的消费水平究竟如何，以及是否应该冒险加息，日本央行总该心中有数。有一点是肯定的，2007年福井终归会提高利率，而且很可能是不止一次，安倍政府必须要接受这一点。
英文原文：Bank of Japan:Walking on Eggshells
Although the recovery is still fragile, Japan should brace itself for interest-rate rises
TOSHIHIKO FUKUI, the wily governor of the Bank of Japan （BoJ）, would dearly like to raise interest rates. But he decided on December 19th that holding off was the wise thing to do. Under Mr Fukui's stewardship, the BoJ has regained much of its lost credibility－thanks to the no-nonsense way it has purged a decade's-worth of dud loans from the banking system and created the conditions for the economy's continuing, albeit wobbly, recovery. In the process, the central bank has earned respect in political circles. And that has translated into less government meddling.
But with the new government of Shinzo Abe, the prime minister, hoping the fragile rebound will continue at least until next summer's upper-house election, the BoJ is treading cautiously. Mr Abe's office says that no pressure was put on Mr Fukui to hold rates when he was called in last week for a friendly chat. But it was made subtly clear that were the bank to slam on the brakes, then it would feel the wrath of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party. No one in political and financial circles will ever let the BoJ forget how it raised the key rate in 2000 from zero to 0.25%－only to lower it again six months later when the increase made deflation even worse.
The central bank is also sensitive to criticism that this summer it prematurely announced the end of Japan's debilitating era of deflation. After six years of essentially free money, the BoJ sneaked in a quick interest-rate rise－from zero to 0.25%－in July, hoping that this would not stop inflation inching higher. In fact, the core consumer-price index has drifted between zero and 0.1%. In Japan the core CPI includes energy prices but not those of food. After stripping out energy, inflation was actually negative in the past few months.
That has not stopped the central bank from making plans to raise its key unsecured overnight call rate to 0.5%. It is concerned about the amount companies have been pouring into capital investment. The rebound in commercial-property prices in Tokyo and other large cities has driven capital spending to new heights. Thanks to the rising value of their properties, against which they can secure loans, smaller firms now find it easier to borrow for investment－as their bigger brethren do. As a result, capital investment has gone through the roof. And although GDP growth for 2005 has lately been revised down （from 2.6% to 1.9%）, it is thanks only to exports and capital investment that the economy has continued to expand since the recovery got under way in 2002.
The central bank is glad that the surge in capital spending has been there to support the economy, but it is anxious that things should not get out of hand. It is mindful of the way cheap money in the 1980s stoked up such a firestorm of investment in the private sector that stock and land prices soared. When the bubble burst in 1990, bad debts brought the banking system close to collapse and the nation fell into a decade of recession and deflation. After living through such a trauma, Mr Fukui is adamant that runaway investment should never again be allowed to wreak such havoc on the economy.
He is also concerned about the way Japan has been supplying much of the world's liquidity. With the Federal Reserve's key rate at 5.25% and the European Central Bank's main rate of 3.5%, the BoJ's ultra-low 0.25% has fuelled an unhealthy boom in the yen carry trade－as investors borrow cheaply in Japan to invest in higher-yielding assets overseas. Mr Fukui believes the dangers of keeping such a loose monetary policy for so long outweigh any short-term gains, and the sooner “normalcy” is achieved the better.
The BoJ had hoped that another small 25 basis-point rise could have been made at its monetary-policy board meeting on December 18th and 19th. The central bank's own quarterly Tankan survey of business sentiment, released on December 15th, confirmed that corporate Japan remains upbeat about future profits, with confidence spreading from large manufacturers to smaller firms. The survey also showed that job prospects and capital spending are rising as well. The one thing that prevented the nine-member policy board from recommending a rate increase was the lacklustre spending by consumers, reflected in the waning confidence of the big retailers.
Everything from inclement weather to job insecurity has been blamed for consumers' reluctance to spend. Yet even as company profits have soared （up a further 15% in the last quarter）, wages have barely risen. As a result, households have had to dip into their savings to make ends meet. The Cabinet Office gives warning that the once-lauded savings rate, which peaked at 23% of household income in 1973, is now down to a Western-like 2.7%. With retirement beckoning for so many, there is a limit to how far Japan's ageing people are prepared to raid their piggy banks today. And since consumer spending accounts for 57% of Japan's GDP, growth will remain puny until companies spread more of their profits around.
Some firms may have started to do just that. The job market is tightening and company balance sheets are strong. Bankruptcies declined a further 15% in November compared with October, while overdue debts fell a solid 32%. All told, liabilities were down 50% on a year ago. As the economy approaches something like full employment, wages can go only one way－up.
Some people argue that private consumption is actually far stronger than the official figures suggest. The data are notoriously unreliable and are invariably adjusted months later. For what it is worth, the Cabinet Office's consumer-confidence survey rose in November for the second straight month. One way or another, the BoJ should have a clearer idea about how much people have been spending－and whether to risk raising its key borrowing rate－from late January onwards. But one thing is clear: Mr Fukui will eventually raise rates in the Year of the Boar－and not just once but probably several times. And that is something Mr Abe's government will have to get used to.
来源：经济学家，2006.12.19
