提要：2006年欧元区经济强劲复苏，增长速度为五年来之最快。如今美国房市降温，将使全球失去规模庞大的美国消费群体，经济学家们对之影响看法不一。乐观人士认为，对欧元区而言，由于经济复苏是受内部需求和新兴经济体需求所拉动，对美国市场依赖较小，增长基础比较坚实，因此明年仍有望保持强劲增长势头。悲观人士则表示，美国消费不可替代，如果美元继续大幅下跌，2007年欧洲经济延续2006年强劲表现这一美好预期将落空。
（外脑精华·北京）从目前的发展态势来看，德国农业机械设备制造商克拉斯公司的前景可谓一片光明。联合收割机和拖拉机在中国和印度市场热销，而美国和德国本土市场的销量在继续大幅攀升。该公司执行总裁Rüdiger Günther 近日表示，“我们未发现任何值得担忧的迹象”。
各方对美消费降温影响看法不一
关键问题是，欧洲其他行业能否像克拉斯公司一样经受住美国经济减速的冲击。欧洲经济在过去的一年强劲复苏，是5年来经济增长最快的一年。出口稳健，投资旺盛，失业率不断下降使居民消费水平出现了久违的回升。
过去5年的房市繁荣使美国消费者可以通过房产抵押提取现金来进行无节制的消费，而冷却的房市成为影响2007年美国经济走势的最大变数。但可以肯定的是，目前只有少数经济学家认为房市降温会对到美国其他经济领域产生外溢效应，并导致美国经济陷入全面衰退。
乐观人士指出，多数像克拉斯公司（去年销售收入为29.2亿美元）一样蒸蒸日上的欧洲企业，都是在美国以外的市场取得成功，因此美国经济降温不会阻碍欧洲经济的高歌猛进。而悲观人士则认为，在遭遇最具杀伤力的冲击时，即便是最强大的经济体也难以独善其身。
欧元区四大经济体联袂走强
几年来一直被视为“欧洲病夫”的德国一改颓势，经济开始强劲复苏；法国经济呈现出温和增长态势；意大利和西班牙经济也恢复了元气。欧元区四大经济体的联袂走强不仅不再拖累爱尔兰、荷兰和奥地利等小型经济体，还对它们的经济增长起到支撑作用。
分析家们预测，2006年欧洲经济增长率将约为2.7%，明年的增长率至少将达到2%。这对依靠美国和欣欣向荣的亚洲新兴市场（尤其是中国和印度）拉动的全球经济来说无疑是一个令人鼓舞的消息，因为欧洲将会继续为全球经济高速增长增加动力。
内需的强劲增长使日本经济摆脱长达10年的滞胀阴影。与之交相辉映的是欧洲最终实现了依靠内需拉动经济增长的目标，这让欧洲决策者们颇感欣慰。
“我们注意到，欧洲和日本的复苏正在使全球经济恢复平衡”，欧洲央行行长让－克罗德·特里谢近日表示，“我们对此十分谨慎，但我们的确发现近期全球经济正在驶入正轨”。
央行或将继续采取紧缩政策
欧元区基准利率已由2005年12月的2%升至目前的3.5%。良好的经济预期使欧洲央行可以在不影响经济增长的情况下，在2007年继续采取稳步加息的紧缩货币政策。
问题是欧洲央行在此前的2000年末也曾遇到这种情况。时任欧洲央行行长的维姆·德伊森贝赫满怀信心地表示，美国经济减速对欧洲经济的影响将是微乎其微。现在看来，当时是科技股泡沫破裂的开始。而当时欧洲央行很快改变货币政策，连续下调主导利率，将其从2001年5月时4.75%的高点降至2003年6月的2%才罢手。
从理论上讲，如果2000—2001年的一幕重现，欧洲央行将被迫采取降息行动。但分析师们告诫说，在没有充分证据表明美国经济减速将殃及欧洲前，央行不希望放弃紧缩货币政策。
法国巴黎银行（BNP Paribas）认定美国经济将陷入衰退。该银行驻伦敦首席欧洲经济研究专家肯·瓦特瑞特（Ken Wattret）称，“欧洲央行继续加息的可能相当大。在利率水平尚未攀升至需要下调的高度之前，央行采取强制性降息举措的可能性很小”。
美经济减速对欧元区影响难以判断
乐观人士指出，最近几年来的企业重组已经让欧洲企业比2001年时更加具有抵抗冲击的能力。当时美国经济紧缩让欧洲企业的结构弱点暴露出来。
对东欧和亚洲等新兴市场的出口份额稳步攀升的一个重要意义是，它可以表明欧洲经济增长对美国的依赖程度比乍看起来要小得多。亚洲市场约占欧盟出口总量的20%，而美国市场仅为15%。
Uni Credit银行驻慕尼黑的经济学家马克·克拉默（Marco Kramer）表示，“尽管没人否认美国经济减速将对欧元区出口造成巨大冲击，但同样有充足的理由表明不必对此过于悲观”。
持相反论调的经济学家认为，美国经济减速将使全球失去规模庞大的美国消费群体，从而对其他地区的经济增长造成沉重打击。摩根斯坦利首席经济学家斯蒂芬·罗奇指出，2005年美国家庭消费总支出为9万亿美元，比欧洲高出20%，几乎是日本的4倍，是中国的9倍。近日罗奇先生撰文称，“不仅是因为美国消费者需求在决定全球经济的表现，而且因为全球其他地区无法添补美国消费者留下的需求缺口”。
经济学家同时指出，金融市场一体化使得各种负面影响可以通过非同寻常的方式在全球迅速蔓延。如果美国经济真出现严重衰退，欧洲对美出口企业和在美投资企业的利润将被侵蚀，并可能导致它们在国内的投资计划放缓。
巴克莱资本分析机构（Barclays Capital）首席金融经济学家劳伦斯·布恩（Laurence Boone）认为，“人都是理性动物，但是这种感觉良好的因素让我们对未来的判断变得非常困难”。
美元贬值阴霾挥之难去
大幅下调明年初美国经济增长预期可能导致的最严重后果是引发美元信任危机（总是存在这种可能，却无法做出预判）。
随着欧元兑美元汇率急速攀升至1：1.31的高位，欧洲出口企业正在纷纷寻求应对之策。如果美元持续大幅下跌，欧洲对美国出口将急转直下，引发金融市场剧烈波动，使2007年欧洲经济将延续2006年强劲表现这一美好预期落空。
“所有的决策者均认为美元仍存在暴跌的可能”，摩根斯坦利首席货币专家任永力指出，“美元贬值阴霾挥之难去”。
英文原文：Europe May Thrive Despite the U.S.
FRANKFURT － The prospects for Claas, a German maker of agricultural equipment, could not be better at the moment. The market for its combines and tractors is booming in China and India. Its sales continue to be strong in the United States and at home.
"We don't see any clouds on the horizon," its chief executive, Rüdiger Günther, said recently.
The question is whether other parts of the European economy can weather the slowdown in the United States as well as Claas. Europe has thrived in the last year － its best in the last five － with healthy exports, strong business investment and the long-awaited return of consumers, many of whom were unemployed in years past and not spending.
Still, the slowing American real estate market, whose rise in the last five years allowed consumers to draw on their housing equity to spend freely, has become the wild card in the outlook for 2007. To be sure, only a minority of economists now think that the decline in housing will spill over into the rest of the United States economy and touch off a full-blown recession.
The optimists about Europe's prospects point to thriving businesses like Claas, which had $2.92 billion in sales last year, most of them outside the United States, as one reason why Europe can take an American slowdown in stride. The pessimists counter that even the strongest economies can be hurt by the largest storms.
Germany, considered only a few years ago to be the sick man of Europe, is resurgent, while France chugs along at a moderate pace.
Italy and Spain are growing as well, making for a quartet that supports, rather than drags down, the dynamic smaller economies like Ireland, the Netherlands and Austria.
Forecasts that Europe will grow about 2.7 percent this year, and at least 2 percent next year, are welcome news for a global economy that relies on the United States and booming emerging markets in Asia, notably China and India, to keep the world's factories humming.
Combined with Japan, which is emerging from a decade of stagnation, Europe can finally stand on its own, to the relief of European policy makers.
"For Europe and also for Japan, the constellations of growth that we're observing are going in the direction of alleviating tensions on global imbalances," Jean-Claude Trichet, president of the European Central Bank, said recently. "We're very cautious. But what we're currently observing goes in the right direction."
This outlook has put the European Central Bank, which has raised its benchmark interest rate to 3.5 percent now from 2 percent in December 2005, in a position where it can order up more rate increases in 2007 without squeezing growth.
The problem is that Europe has been in this position before, in late 2000. At that time, Wim Duisenberg, who was then president of the European Central Bank, confidently predicted that a slowing American economy would have minimal effect on Europe. In retrospect, it was the beginning of the collapse of the technology bubble. But the bank soon reversed course and in May 2001 began cutting its key interest rate from a high of 4.75, and did not stop until it hit 2 percent in June 2003.
A repeat of 2000-01 could, in theory, force the central bank to cut rates. But analysts caution that the bank will be unwilling to abandon its tightening strategy without ample evidence that the United States is pulling Europe down with it.
"The potential for denial is pretty vast here," said Ken Wattret, chief European economist with BNP Paribas, a bank that has staked out a bearish view of the American economy. "The compulsion to cut rates is much less when rates are not that high to begin with."
The optimists hasten to point out that corporate restructuring in the last few years has made companies much more shock-resistant than they were in 2001, when the contracting economy in the United States laid bare the structural weakness of the European corporate sector.
One consequence of steady expansion into new markets, like Eastern Europe and Asia, has meant that Europe is less dependent on the United States than it might first appear. About 20 percent of exports from European Union countries head to Asia, and only 15 percent across the Atlantic.
"While there is no doubt that a U.S. slowdown will have serious implications for euro zone exporters, there are also good reasons not to be overly pessimistic," said Marco Kramer, an economist with UniCredit in Munich.
The opposing school points to the sheer number of American consumers as the reason why an American slowdown will hurt the rest of the world, and badly. In 2005, household spending totaled $9 trillion, or 20 percent more than spending in Europe, nearly four times the Japanese total, and nine times the corresponding Chinese figure, said Stephen S. Roach, chief economist at Morgan Stanley.
"Not only do Teflonlike U.S. consumers reign supreme in terms of relative growth performance, but they also have the scale that the rest of the world is lacking," Mr. Roach wrote in a recent essay.
Economists also note that integrated financial markets transmit shocks in unusual ways. If the American economy does slow significantly, European firms that sell there or have invested there will see their shares tumble, possibly leading them to slow investment at home.
"People are rational animals, but this feel-good factor is important in a way that is very hard for us to measure," said Laurence Boone, chief France economist for Barclays Capital.
The worst possible scenario would be a crisis of confidence in the dollar － impossible to predict but always conceivable － set off by a sharp deterioration in the outlook in the United States early in the year.
With a surging euro worth about $1.31, European exporters are finding ways to cope. But a serious collapse of the dollar would send European exports to the United States into a free fall, generate turbulence in financial markets and douse hopes for a 2007 that matches 2006.
"All the policy makers still believe in the possibility of a dollar crash," said Stephen Jen, the chief currency economist at Morgan Stanley. "It's lingering out there."
来源：纽约时报，2006.12.26，作者：Carter Dougherty
作者：Carter Dougherty
